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The First State was long a bellwether. It could be one again.
By Mike Ramone Wall Street Journal Opinion Joe Biden was elected vice president 16 years ago. It’s the same year I was first elected to Delaware’s House of Representatives, where I currently serve as minority leader. It was also the year that Delaware
became known in the American imagination as “Joe Biden’s home state.” He had been elected to the Senate 36 years earlier.
I have always believed that everyday Delawareans are independent- minded, and the state was a presidential bellwether between 1952 and 1996. But coincidently or not, Delaware’s shift to the left has correlated with Mr. Biden’s own leftward pivot as his national prominence has risen. Now, as the proclaimed hometown hero takes his name off the November ballot, Delaware may be on track to become one of this election’s biggest upsets.
Today, with an increasingly dissatisfied electorate, registered independents back up to the historic peak of 2014, and the absence of the “Biden bump,” Delaware might be poised for a party flip.
This summer, polls in states as blue as New Jersey and Minnesota showed the presidential race closer than anticipated. With Mr. Biden’s exit, his party’s ticket no longer has to carry the weight of his terrible debate performance. But it loses, particularly for my state, an important name. And Kamala Harris still has the administration’s record on the economy, foreign policy and the border to explain—along with her past radical policy statements.
I think Delaware could flip. In 2016, Donald Trump came within 12 points of Hillary Clinton in my state. John McCain lost by almost 25 and Mitt Romney by nearly 19. Notably, 2016 was the only election since 2004 that Mr. Biden didn’t appear on the presidential ticket.
This year, as the Democratic Party scrambles to manufacture enthusiasm for a candidate they largely dismissed only weeks ago, it’s likely that margin will be much closer.
Inflation, crime, immigration, education—these are the issues that matter to voters. Focusing on them will push Republican candidates over the finish line in November. In Delaware, education is one of the top issues. Despite having the seventh-highest spending per student, my state ranks 45th in quality of education.
When I opened my first business 42 years ago, Delaware was a much different place. We had a working economy, schools that prepared our children for success, and infrastructure that supported commerce and investment.
I can’t say the same now. Our economy ranks low for business, and entrepreneurs are leaving for states with less regulation.
Talking about kitchen-table issues is how we can turn states like Delaware, Pennsylvania and Virginia red. In 2020, even though my legislative district voted for Mr. Biden by 23 points, I won by 4. Two years later, I was re-elected by 35 votes in a district no one thought we could win.
In November, keep your eyes on Delaware. With the hometown hero off the ballot, the cracks in the establishment’s armor will be clearer than ever.
Mr. Ramone is minority leader of the Delaware House and the Republican nominee for governor Appeared in the August 19, 2024, print edition as 'With Biden Gone, Delaware Could Flip'. See full article here.